AlavesVS
ValenciaLa Liga · Estadio de Mendizorroza · Tue 15 Sept, 19:00 BST
Alaves v Valencia on Tuesday night is shaping up to be one of those fixtures where the model's view and the punter's gut might pull in different directions. The hosts come into this one at the Estadio de Mendizorroza as overwhelming favourites on the numbers. On the face of it, that's a story of dominance. On closer inspection, it's a match where understanding what the xG figures tell us matters far more than the bare probabilities.
In this preview, we'll walk through what our model sees in this tie. We'll break down the expected goals figures, explain what they mean for how the 90 minutes is likely to unfold, and most importantly, we'll show you where we reckon the value actually sits in the markets. If you're thinking about putting this game into an acca, or backing a specific market angle, read on.
The tie in a nutshell
Our model makes Alaves overwhelming favourites here. The numbers put an Alaves win at 85%, a draw at 12%, and a Valencia victory at just 3%. That gap between the home side and their visitors is massive. What that tells us is that our model sees Alaves as likely to control this match from start to finish, create the better chances, and most probably come away with three points. Valencia, on these figures, would need something close to a perfect storm to leave Vitoria with anything.
That kind of skew in the probabilities usually means we're looking at a game where one side is genuinely expected to be much the better outfit. The 85% win probability isn't a wild outlier for a home favourite against weaker opposition. It's the kind of number that suggests Alaves should be pulling away fairly comfortably if things play out according to the model. But football doesn't always follow the numbers, and that's where the underdog angle comes in later.
What the numbers say
Expected goals, or xG, is a simple way of measuring how many good chances a team makes. It doesn't care if they score from those chances. It just counts up the quality and quantity of their shooting opportunities. High xG means a team is creating clear, dangerous openings. Low xG means they're either not getting much of the ball in dangerous areas, or when they do, they're not making much of it.
Alaves' 2.71 xG against Valencia's 0.43 xG is a chasm. The hosts are generating nearly six times as many chances as their visitors, or at least six times the quality of chance. That's not a narrow edge you'd expect to flip with a bit of luck or a purple patch. That's a statement that says Alaves are doing pretty much everything right in attack, while Valencia are barely threatening. When you see a gap that wide in the xG column, you're usually looking at a team that's going to control the tempo, dominate possession, and create consistent problems for their opponent's defence. Valencia, meanwhile, would have to be playing a narrow, defensive shape and hoping for scraps on the break.
How the game could unfold
If the xG figures play out as they're expected to, expect Alaves to start this one with real intent. They'll want to get bodies forward early, test Valencia's shape, and put the visitors under immediate pressure. Valencia, with such a low xG figure attached to their name, will likely sit deep and try to deny space in the middle. The question isn't really whether Alaves will create chances. The question is whether they'll be clinical enough to finish them, and whether Valencia can weather the storm long enough to nick something on the counter.
The game could easily feel one-sided for large spells. Alaves will probably have the ball for chunks of the second half, probing and looking for that moment of quality. Valencia's job becomes one of damage limitation. If they can stay compact and keep the scoreline respectable into the final 20 minutes, they'll have done their job. But that defensive discipline is hard to maintain against 85 minutes of pressure. Eventually, good teams break through.
Can Valencia find a way in?
Valencia are massive underdogs here, and the xG figures show you exactly why. To pull off something special, a few things would have to go their way. First, they'd need Alaves to be wasteful. With 2.71 xG, the hosts should be scoring at least once or twice if they're at their clinical best. Valencia would be banking on Alaves missing from positions you'd normally expect them to convert. That's possible, but it's not a strong foundation for a bet.
Secondly, Valencia would need to stay organised and intact for 90 minutes. One lapse, one moment of poor marking or positioning, and Alaves have a clear sight of goal. With the quality of chance-creation Alaves are expected to generate, Valencia can't afford many mistakes. On top of that, they'd need to find something going forward themselves, which the 0.43 xG suggests is extremely unlikely. To put it plainly, the numbers don't give Valencia much hope. But this is football. Shocks happen.
The goals angle
With Alaves creating chances at 2.71 xG and Valencia at 0.43 xG, you'd expect goals to be part of the story. When one team is generating that much quality in the final third, they're usually getting the ball in the back of the net. The combined xG is over 3.14, which in plain terms means the model sees this as a match where goals are likely. The real question is whether we're looking at Alaves winning 1-0 through a single well-taken chance, or whether they put a few past Valencia and make it a comfortable evening. Valencia scoring looks unlikely given their xG figure, but not impossible. There's a genuine conversation to be had about how many goals we'll see here, and the markets have priced some angles in ways that might interest the keen punter.
Our model's verdict, and where the value looks
Our model makes Alaves clear favourites for the result. An 85% win probability is a strong conviction call. But here's the thing. The real value for punters often isn't in backing the obvious favourite. It's in finding the angles where the market has got the pricing wrong. Looking at the xG figures and the goal-related markets, there are some interesting spots where the numbers suggest the odds aren't quite reflecting what our model sees. Our AI football predictions on Winotips are built to find exactly these edges. The specific picks, the exact odds, and which markets have drifted away from fair value are all ranked and explained inside Winotips Pro. That's where you'll find today's rated selection for this match, plus our daily acca which pulls together the best value across all of Tuesday's fixtures.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Alaves v Valencia?
Our model rates Alaves as heavy favourites at 85% for the win, with Valencia given just 3% and a draw at 12%. Based purely on the numbers we have, the hosts are expected to come away with three points. That said, model predictions are analysis, not guarantees. Valencia remain dangerous because anything can happen in a football match.
Will both teams score?
Valencia's xG of 0.43 makes them huge underdogs to find the back of the net. Alaves' 2.71 xG suggests they'll have plenty of chances. The mismatch in creativity means Valencia scoring looks unlikely. For both teams to score, Valencia would need to break through Alaves' defence at least once, which the numbers don't rate as a strong probability. But again, this is where specific market pricing matters, and that's something we dive into for Winotips Pro members.
Is this one for an acca?
Alaves at 85% to win is the kind of probability that punters often want to stack into accas to boost the odds. It's tempting. But accas are only as good as their weakest link, and even 85% favourites lose sometimes. Whether you include this in a multiple depends on your bet slip strategy and your odds target. We rank every match's best value daily in Winotips Pro, so you can see which angles sit best with what you're trying to build.
What does the Winotips model say?
Our model sees Alaves as dominant on these numbers. The xG gap is huge, the probabilities heavily favour the home side, and the expected goals figures suggest this will be a match where the hosts control the ball and create danger regularly. But a model prediction is analysis. It's not a guarantee, and it's not a certainty. Use it as part of your thinking, not as a replacement for it. We provide these predictions for information, and betting should always be entertaining, never a way to make money.
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