BoliviaVS
ParaguayFriendlies · Audi Field · Sun 27 Sept, 21:30 BST
Bolivia v Paraguay kicks off at Audi Field on Sunday 27 September at 21:30 BST, and it's one of those friendlies that won't set the Premier League on fire in the build-up but could offer some proper value if you know where to look. These CONMEBOL sides are using the break to sharpen up, and on paper this looks like a competitive fixture between two teams with plenty to prove. Our model has run the numbers and there's definitely something worth discussing here for anyone keeping an eye on the value markets.
What we're going to do is break down what our model makes of this one. We'll look at the chances quality on both sides, what the probabilities tell us about the likely outcome, and crucially, where the value looks most interesting. If you're thinking about this for an acca or a straight pick, you'll want to understand what the underlying data is saying. Let's get into it.
The tie in a nutshell
Our model makes Bolivia the favourites here, rating them at a 41% chance of winning, with a draw sitting at 35% and Paraguay at 24%. That's not a landslide, but it does put a clear lean towards the home side (well, the side we're tipping to win). The gap between Bolivia and a draw is tight, though. Only 6%age points separates a Bolivia win from a stalemate. What that tells you is this isn't the kind of match where one team is going to waltz through. It's competitive, close, and there's a real chance it ends level.
Paraguay, on these figures, are up against it. A 24% win probability means they're very much the underdogs, but friendlies can be funny things. They're not as rigid as competitive matches, and on any given Sunday a side can nick it if they're clinical. Still, the numbers say Bolivia should edge it or it'll be shared. The shape of the match is likely to feel tighter than you might expect from a friendly. There won't be much between them.
What the numbers say
Expected goals, or xG, is just a way of measuring how good the chances are that each team creates. It's not about how many shots they have. It's about the quality of those shots. A tap-in from two yards out scores high. A speculative effort from 30 yards scores low. Over time, xG is a really useful way to spot which team has actually been the better side, even if the scoreline doesn't reflect it.
Bolivia's xG sits at 1.10, and Paraguay are at 0.77. That's a clear edge to Bolivia in terms of the quality and volume of chances they're making. Bolivia are creating better opportunities, more regularly. That 0.33 gap might not sound massive, but in the context of a friendly where you might expect 2 to 4 goals total, it's meaningful. Paraguay are making fewer good chances, which fits with them being the less-favoured side. The underlying play, on the figures we have, is tilted Bolivia's way. They're the side that should be creating the platform for the game.
How the game could unfold
Based on the xG and the result probabilities, expect a fairly open friendly where Bolivia control possession and creation more of the time. They're not going to dominate utterly. Paraguay will have their moments. But the pattern should be Bolivia pushing forward, asking questions, creating the better chances. The xG gap tells us this isn't a mismatch, though. Paraguay aren't going to be chasing the ball all night. They'll get opportunities of their own. It just won't be as clean or as frequent as what Bolivia create.
The tempo could be quite end-to-end at times. Friendlies often are. Nobody's got a title to defend, so both sides will have a go. You might see Bolivia build a lead if they take one of their better chances, but Paraguay should never be out of it. A 1-1 or a 1-0 Bolivia win look like the shape of play the numbers are pointing towards. The chances are there for both sides to score, but it's not the kind of fixture where you'd expect a goalfest.
Can Paraguay find a way in?
On a 24% win probability, Paraguay would have to be efficient and clinical. They're not creating as many good chances as Bolivia, so they can't afford to miss what they do get. The xG gap of 0.33 is real. But here's the thing with friendlies. They're loose. They're not as tactical. A team with a bit of grit and organisation can absolutely nick a result. Paraguay have the talent to do it. They just need to be sharper in the final third than the numbers suggest they have been.
If Paraguay are going to win this, they'll likely need Bolivia to have an off-night in front of goal, or for them to hit on the break and be ruthless. One or two clinical finishes could flip the narrative entirely. The model sees them as underdogs, but 24% is far from impossible. On the day, a lot comes down to execution, form, and hunger. The numbers give Bolivia the edge, but strangers have won the pools.
The goals angle
With Bolivia at 1.10 xG and Paraguay at 0.77, we're looking at just under 1.87 expected goals combined. That's not a high-scoring game. You'd be looking at something like 1-0, 1-1, 0-1 type scorelines as the most likely outcomes. Both teams are creating chances, but they're not creating an absolute mountain of them. A friendly where neither side ships many goals is pretty typical. Defences don't usually come apart in matches like this.
That's where the goals markets get interesting. If the market is pricing in higher scoring than the underlying chances suggest, there's value to be had. Conversely, if everyone's piling in on the under, the value might be flipped. The xG tells us this should be fairly tight in terms of goals. There are chances for both sides, but this isn't going to be a 3-2 thriller. That low xG total means the goals market is worth studying carefully. The numbers paint a picture of a close, fairly low-scoring affair.
Our model's verdict, and where the value looks
Our model makes Bolivia the favourites for the result, at 41%. That's the lean you'd expect from the xG gap and their overall chance creation. But the probabilities reveal something more interesting for punters. The draw, at 35%, is only 6 points behind a Bolivia win. And when you look at what the market is pricing in versus what our model sees, there's a real disconnect in a couple of places.
We've flagged the draw as a market that looks bigger than it should be, and there's value in the goals markets too if you look at the low expected goal totals. The specific ranked picks and the exact edges are in our AI football predictions on Winotips Pro, where you'll also find today's acca and all the value ranked by edge. But the headline from the model is this. Bolivia are favourites, but not by a landslide. And the markets haven't quite priced that in properly.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Bolivia v Paraguay?
Our model rates Bolivia at 41% to win, with a 35% chance of a draw and 24% for Paraguay. So Bolivia are favoured, but it's genuinely competitive. A third of the time the model runs this, it sees a stalemate. That's how tight it is.
Will both teams score?
The xG suggests a fairly low-scoring game, with Bolivia creating better chances than Paraguay. Both sides should have chances, but the overall expected goal output isn't high. Whether both teams get on the scoresheet is where the numbers get interesting. That low xG total means goals could be at a premium.
Is this one for an acca?
Friendlies can be tricky for accas because they lack the intensity of competitive football. That said, if you're building a multi and you need a leg, this fixture has legs if you know where the value is. The specific picks ranked by edge are on Winotips Pro, along with today's acca. That's the place to find out what selections we think stack up best.
What does the Winotips model say?
The model sees a competitive fixture with a slight edge to Bolivia, but nothing certain. Friendlies are unpredictable by nature. Our model is a tool that spots where the odds don't match the underlying numbers. It's not a crystal ball. Use it to find value, not to guarantee results. Gamble for fun, never as a way to make money.
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