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La Liga·Sun, 20 Sept 2026, 15:15
Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid
2:1
Real MadridReal Madrid

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Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid prediction, AI analysis & value bets

Win probability (AI model)

Atletico Madrid
61%
Draw
23%
Real Madrid
16%
Model favoured Atletico Madrid to win
Atletico MadridMatch statsReal Madrid
61%
Atletico Madrid
Poss
%
39%
Real Madrid
17Shots8
9Shots on target3
12Shots inside box3
3Corners1
19Fouls6
2Yellow cards2

Expected goals (xG)

2.1 vs 1.0

Form (last 5)

Atletico Madrid
LLWWW
Real Madrid
LWWWL

Head-to-head (last 10)

Atletico Madrid 4W · 3D · 3W Real Madrid

League position

Atletico Madrid: 2/20 · Real Madrid: 4/20

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid result & analysis

The match finished Atletico Madrid 2 Real Madrid 1. Ahead of kickoff our AI model had favoured Atletico Madrid on a 61% win probability, against 16% for Real Madrid and 23% for the draw, from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations.

The model had projected 2.1 expected goals (xG) for Atletico Madrid and 1.0 for Real Madrid, a profile fitting an open, high-scoring game. Atletico Madrid had taken strong form into the game (3W-0D-2L in their last 5). Real Madrid had been strong over the same stretch (3W-0D-2L).

Over their last 10 meetings, Atletico Madrid have won 4, Real Madrid 3 and 3 finished level. In the table, Atletico Madrid sat 2/20 and Real Madrid 4/20. Winotips Pro members can see the exact pick the model made for this match and whether it landed, as part of the verified AI track record.

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Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid: frequently asked questions

Who won Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid?

Atletico Madrid won 2:1. Our AI model had favoured Atletico Madrid to win before kickoff.

How many goals were scored in Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid?

3 in total (Atletico Madrid 2, Real Madrid 1). The model had projected 2.1 and 1.0 expected goals.

What form did Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid take into the match?

Atletico Madrid were 3W-0D-2L and Real Madrid were 3W-0D-2L across their last five matches.

Did the Winotips AI get Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid right?

Winotips Pro members can see the exact pick the model made and whether it landed, as part of the verified AI track record.

Latest Atletico Madrid & Real Madrid news

Atletico Madrid 2-1 Real Madrid: Jose Mourinho's men beaten in feisty derbyBBCMourinho prints out 'red card' incidents after Real lose derbyBBCJude Bellingham just proved who the real leader of Real Madrid actually isThe Real ChampsReal Madrid flop Diomande hits back at critics as he bizarrely sings after lossThe Sun

Predictions are statistical estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly · begambleaware.org