Azerbaijan vs Lithuania prediction, AI analysis & value bets

Win probability (AI model)

Azerbaijan

38%

Draw

36%

Lithuania

26%

Model favoured Azerbaijan to win

AzerbaijanMatch statsLithuania

38%

Azerbaijan

Poss
%

62%

Lithuania

13Shots13

7Shots on target3

7Shots inside box7

2Corners5

14Fouls10

3Yellow cards2

Expected goals (xG)

1.1 vs 0.8

Form (last 5)

Azerbaijan

WWDDW

Lithuania

LWDWL

Head-to-head (last 3)

Azerbaijan 1W · 2D · 0W Lithuania

Azerbaijan vs Lithuania result & analysis

The match finished Azerbaijan 1 Lithuania 0. Ahead of kickoff our AI model had favoured Azerbaijan on a 38% win probability, against 26% for Lithuania and 36% for the draw, from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations.

The model had projected 1.1 expected goals (xG) for Azerbaijan and 0.8 for Lithuania, a profile fitting a cagey, low-scoring game. Azerbaijan had taken strong form into the game (3W-2D-0L in their last 5). Lithuania had been mixed over the same stretch (2W-1D-2L).

Over their last 3 meetings, Azerbaijan have won 1, Lithuania 0 and 2 finished level. Winotips Pro members can see the exact pick the model made for this match and whether it landed, as part of the verified AI track record.

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