Colombia vs Paraguay prediction, AI analysis & value bets

Win probability (AI model)

Colombia

55%

Draw

27%

Paraguay

17%

Model favoured Colombia to win

ColombiaMatch statsParaguay

58%

Colombia

Poss
%

42%

Paraguay

13Shots5

2Shots on target2

7Shots inside box3

3Corners1

13Fouls18

2Yellow cards2

Expected goals (xG)

1.6 vs 0.8

Form (last 5)

Colombia

DWDDL

Paraguay

DDLWW

Head-to-head (last 10)

Colombia 5W · 3D · 2W Paraguay

Colombia vs Paraguay result & analysis

The match finished Colombia 0 Paraguay 1. Ahead of kickoff our AI model had favoured Colombia on a 55% win probability, against 17% for Paraguay and 27% for the draw, from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations.

The model had projected 1.6 expected goals (xG) for Colombia and 0.8 for Paraguay, a profile fitting a moderately open game. Colombia had taken poor form into the game (1W-3D-1L in their last 5). Paraguay had been mixed over the same stretch (2W-2D-1L).

Over their last 10 meetings, Colombia have won 5, Paraguay 2 and 3 finished level. Winotips Pro members can see the exact pick the model made for this match and whether it landed, as part of the verified AI track record.

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The model picture above is free. Pro members see the part that matters: the exact recommended pick and how much edge it holds over the bookmakers, on this match and every match.