Coritiba vs Gremio prediction, AI analysis & value bets

Win probability (AI model)

Coritiba

47%

Draw

30%

Gremio

22%

Model leans towards Coritiba to win

Expected goals (xG)

1.5 vs 0.8

Form (last 5)

Coritiba

DLLDL

Gremio

LLDDD

Head-to-head (last 10)

Coritiba 1W · 2D · 7W Gremio

League position

Coritiba: 12/20 · Gremio: 18/20

Coritiba vs Gremio match preview

Our AI model makes Coritiba the favourites for this Brazilian Série A fixture, giving them a 47% chance of victory against 22% for Gremio and 30% for the draw. The projection is built from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the match.

The model projects 1.5 expected goals (xG) for Coritiba and 0.8 for Gremio, pointing towards a cagey, low-scoring game. Coritiba take poor form into the game (0W-2D-3L in their last 5). Gremio have been poor over the same stretch (0W-3D-2L).

Over their last 10 meetings, Coritiba have won 1, Gremio 7 and 2 finished level. In the table, Coritiba sit 12/20 and Gremio 18/20. Winotips Pro members get the model's single recommended pick for this match, its confidence rating, and the value bet carrying the biggest edge over current bookmaker odds.

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