Derby vs Wrexham prediction, AI analysis & value bets

Win probability (AI model)

Derby

27%

Draw

32%

Wrexham

41%

Model favoured Wrexham to win

DerbyMatch statsWrexham

45%

Derby

Poss
%

55%

Wrexham

10Shots13

4Shots on target3

4Shots inside box10

1Corners8

10Fouls6

3Yellow cards2

Expected goals (xG)

0.9 vs 1.2

Form (last 5)

Derby

LLLDD

Wrexham

DDLWD

Head-to-head (last 3)

Derby 0W · 2D · 1W Wrexham

League position

Derby: 23/24 · Wrexham: 14/24

Derby vs Wrexham result & analysis

The match finished Derby 1 Wrexham 1. Ahead of kickoff our AI model had favoured Wrexham on a 41% win probability, against 27% for Derby and 32% for the draw, from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations.

The model had projected 0.9 expected goals (xG) for Derby and 1.2 for Wrexham, a profile fitting a cagey, low-scoring game. Derby had taken poor form into the game (0W-2D-3L in their last 5). Wrexham had been poor over the same stretch (1W-3D-1L).

Over their last 3 meetings, Derby have won 0, Wrexham 1 and 2 finished level. In the table, Derby sat 23/24 and Wrexham 14/24. Winotips Pro members can see the exact pick the model made for this match and whether it landed, as part of the verified AI track record.

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