Derby vs Wrexham prediction, AI analysis & value bets

Our AI model makes Wrexham the favourites for this Championship fixture, giving them a 36% chance of victory against 23% for Derby and 34% for the draw. The projection is built from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the match.

The model projects 1.0 expected goals (xG) for Derby and 1.1 for Wrexham, pointing towards a cagey, low-scoring game. Derby take poor form into the game (1W-1D-3L in their last 5). Wrexham have been mixed over the same stretch (2W-2D-1L).

Over their last 2 meetings, Derby have won 0, Wrexham 1 and 1 finished level. In the table, Derby sit 22/24 and Wrexham 14/24. Winotips Pro members get the model's single recommended pick for this match, its confidence rating, and the value bet carrying the biggest edge over current bookmaker odds.