Estoril vs Casa Pia prediction, AI analysis & value bets

Win probability (AI model)

Estoril

56%

Draw

28%

Casa Pia

16%

Model favoured Estoril to win

EstorilMatch statsCasa Pia

53%

Estoril

Poss
%

47%

Casa Pia

14Shots11

6Shots on target3

7Shots inside box7

7Corners4

7Fouls11

3Yellow cards2

Expected goals (xG)

1.6 vs 0.8

Form (last 5)

Estoril

LLDLL

Casa Pia

LLDLW

Head-to-head (last 10)

Estoril 3W · 5D · 2W Casa Pia

League position

Estoril: 17/18 · Casa Pia: 18/18

Estoril vs Casa Pia result & analysis

The match finished Estoril 1 Casa Pia 2. Ahead of kickoff our AI model had favoured Estoril on a 56% win probability, against 16% for Casa Pia and 28% for the draw, from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations.

The model had projected 1.6 expected goals (xG) for Estoril and 0.8 for Casa Pia, a profile fitting a moderately open game. Estoril had taken poor form into the game (0W-1D-4L in their last 5). Casa Pia had been poor over the same stretch (1W-1D-3L).

Over their last 10 meetings, Estoril have won 3, Casa Pia 2 and 5 finished level. In the table, Estoril sat 17/18 and Casa Pia 18/18. Winotips Pro members can see the exact pick the model made for this match and whether it landed, as part of the verified AI track record.

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The model picture above is free. Pro members see the part that matters: the exact recommended pick and how much edge it holds over the bookmakers, on this match and every match.