FC Porto vs Benfica prediction, AI analysis & value bets

Win probability (AI model)

FC Porto

30%

Draw

30%

Benfica

39%

Model favoured Benfica to win

FC PortoMatch statsBenfica

45%

FC Porto

Poss
%

55%

Benfica

20Shots11

7Shots on target3

12Shots inside box7

3Corners3

16Fouls12

3Yellow cards3

Expected goals (xG)

1.1 vs 1.3

Form (last 5)

FC Porto

WWWLW

Benfica

WWWWW

Head-to-head (last 10)

FC Porto 3W · 2D · 5W Benfica

League position

FC Porto: 1/18 · Benfica: 2/18

FC Porto vs Benfica result & analysis

The match finished FC Porto 3 Benfica 1. Ahead of kickoff our AI model had favoured Benfica on a 39% win probability, against 30% for FC Porto and 30% for the draw, from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations.

The model had projected 1.1 expected goals (xG) for FC Porto and 1.3 for Benfica, a profile fitting a moderately open game. FC Porto had taken strong form into the game (4W-0D-1L in their last 5). Benfica had been strong over the same stretch (5W-0D-0L).

Over their last 10 meetings, FC Porto have won 3, Benfica 5 and 2 finished level. In the table, FC Porto sat 1/18 and Benfica 2/18. Winotips Pro members can see the exact pick the model made for this match and whether it landed, as part of the verified AI track record.

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The model picture above is free. Pro members see the part that matters: the exact recommended pick and how much edge it holds over the bookmakers, on this match and every match.