France vs Italy prediction, AI analysis & value bets

Win probability (AI model)

France

71%

Draw

19%

Italy

10%

Model favoured France to win

FranceMatch statsItaly

66%

France

Poss
%

34%

Italy

18Shots14

8Shots on target2

8Shots inside box10

6Corners4

9Fouls9

0Yellow cards4

Expected goals (xG)

2.3 vs 0.8

Form (last 5)

France

LLWWD

Italy

WWLWD

Head-to-head (last 5)

France 2W · 1D · 2W Italy

League position

France: 1/4 · Italy: 3/4

France vs Italy result & analysis

The match finished France 1 Italy 1. Ahead of kickoff our AI model had favoured France on a 71% win probability, against 10% for Italy and 19% for the draw, from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations.

The model had projected 2.3 expected goals (xG) for France and 0.8 for Italy, a profile fitting an open, high-scoring game. France had taken mixed form into the game (2W-1D-2L in their last 5). Italy had been strong over the same stretch (3W-1D-1L).

Over their last 5 meetings, France have won 2, Italy 2 and 1 finished level. In the table, France sat 1/4 and Italy 3/4. Winotips Pro members can see the exact pick the model made for this match and whether it landed, as part of the verified AI track record.

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The model picture above is free. Pro members see the part that matters: the exact recommended pick and how much edge it holds over the bookmakers, on this match and every match.