Genoa vs Fiorentina prediction, AI analysis & value bets

Win probability (AI model)

Genoa

27%

Draw

29%

Fiorentina

43%

Model favoured Fiorentina to win

GenoaMatch statsFiorentina

37%

Genoa

Poss
%

63%

Fiorentina

10Shots12

4Shots on target3

7Shots inside box9

3Corners4

11Fouls10

5Yellow cards3

Expected goals (xG)

1.2 vs 1.5

Form (last 5)

Genoa

DWLLW

Fiorentina

LWWDL

Head-to-head (last 10)

Genoa 1W · 4D · 5W Fiorentina

League position

Genoa: 16/20 · Fiorentina: 18/20

Genoa vs Fiorentina result & analysis

The match finished Genoa 2 Fiorentina 1. Ahead of kickoff our AI model had favoured Fiorentina on a 43% win probability, against 27% for Genoa and 29% for the draw, from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations.

The model had projected 1.2 expected goals (xG) for Genoa and 1.5 for Fiorentina, a profile fitting a moderately open game. Genoa had taken mixed form into the game (2W-1D-2L in their last 5). Fiorentina had been mixed over the same stretch (2W-1D-2L).

Over their last 10 meetings, Genoa have won 1, Fiorentina 5 and 4 finished level. In the table, Genoa sat 16/20 and Fiorentina 18/20. Winotips Pro members can see the exact pick the model made for this match and whether it landed, as part of the verified AI track record.

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