Italy vs Türkiye prediction, AI analysis & value bets

Win probability (AI model)

Italy

73%

Draw

19%

Türkiye

Model favoured Italy to win

ItalyMatch statsTürkiye

45%

Italy

Poss
%

55%

Türkiye

15Shots12

6Shots on target5

12Shots inside box6

3Corners9

11Fouls9

2Yellow cards2

Expected goals (xG)

2.2 vs 0.7

Form (last 5)

Italy

WLWDW

Türkiye

WLLLL

Head-to-head (last 5)

Italy 4W · 1D · 0W Türkiye

League position

Italy: 2/4 · Türkiye: 4/4

Italy vs Türkiye result & analysis

The match finished Italy 3 Türkiye 1. Ahead of kickoff our AI model had favoured Italy on a 73% win probability, against 9% for Türkiye and 19% for the draw, from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations.

The model had projected 2.2 expected goals (xG) for Italy and 0.7 for Türkiye, a profile fitting a moderately open game. Italy had taken strong form into the game (3W-1D-1L in their last 5). Türkiye had been poor over the same stretch (1W-0D-4L).

Over their last 5 meetings, Italy have won 4, Türkiye 0 and 1 finished level. In the table, Italy sat 2/4 and Türkiye 4/4. Winotips Pro members can see the exact pick the model made for this match and whether it landed, as part of the verified AI track record.

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The model picture above is free. Pro members see the part that matters: the exact recommended pick and how much edge it holds over the bookmakers, on this match and every match.