Premier League·Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 17:30
Newcastle
Aston VillaSt. James' Park
Newcastle vs Aston Villa prediction, AI analysis & value bets
Win probability (AI model)
NewcastleAston VillaExpected goals (xG)
2.4 vs 1.6
Form (last 5)
Head-to-head (last 10)
Newcastle 5W · 2D · 3W Aston Villa
League position
Newcastle: 9/20 · Aston Villa: 16/20
Newcastle vs Aston Villa match preview
Our AI model makes Newcastle the favourites for this Premier League fixture, giving them a 54% chance of victory against 25% for Aston Villa and 21% for the draw. The projection is built from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the match.
The model projects 2.4 expected goals (xG) for Newcastle and 1.6 for Aston Villa, pointing towards an open, high-scoring game. Newcastle take strong form into the game (3W-1D-1L in their last 5). Aston Villa have been strong over the same stretch (4W-0D-1L).
Over their last 10 meetings, Newcastle have won 5, Aston Villa 3 and 2 finished level. In the table, Newcastle sit 9/20 and Aston Villa 16/20. Winotips Pro members get the model's single recommended pick for this match, its confidence rating, and the value bet carrying the biggest edge over current bookmaker odds.
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The model picture above is free. Pro members see the part that matters: the exact recommended pick and how much edge it holds over the bookmakers, on this match and every match.
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Newcastle vs Aston Villa: frequently asked questions
Who will win Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
Our AI model makes Newcastle to win the most likely outcome, giving Newcastle a 54% chance, the draw 21% and Aston Villa 25%.
How many goals are expected in Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
The model projects 2.4 expected goals for Newcastle and 1.6 for Aston Villa (3.9 combined) across 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations.
What form are Newcastle and Aston Villa in?
Newcastle are 3W-1D-1L and Aston Villa are 4W-0D-1L across their last five matches.
What is the AI's recommended bet for Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
The full AI pick, its confidence rating and the best value bet with its edge over bookmaker odds are available to Winotips Pro members.
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Predictions are statistical estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly · begambleaware.org