Newcastle vs Everton prediction, AI analysis & value bets

Win probability (AI model)

Newcastle

33%

Draw

30%

Everton

37%

Model leans towards Everton to win

Expected goals (xG)

1.4 vs 1.2

Form (last 5)

Newcastle

WLWLL

Everton

DWWDL

Head-to-head (last 10)

Newcastle 3W · 2D · 5W Everton

League position

Newcastle: 11/20 · Everton: 8/20

Newcastle vs Everton match preview

Newcastle vs Everton shapes up as one of the tighter calls on the card. Across 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations our model separates the two sides by just 4 points: Newcastle on 33% and Everton on 37%, with the draw a live outcome at 30%. Expect a close, low margin contest in this Premier League fixture.

The model projects 1.4 expected goals (xG) for Newcastle and 1.2 for Everton, pointing towards a moderately open game. Newcastle take mixed form into the game (2W-0D-3L in their last 5). Everton have been mixed over the same stretch (2W-2D-1L).

Over their last 10 meetings, Newcastle have won 3, Everton 5 and 2 finished level. In the table, Newcastle sit 11/20 and Everton 8/20. Winotips Pro members get the model's single recommended pick for this match, its confidence rating, and the value bet carrying the biggest edge over current bookmaker odds.

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