QPR vs Derby prediction, AI analysis & value bets

Our AI model makes QPR the favourites for this Championship fixture, giving them a 39% chance of victory against 30% for Derby and 31% for the draw. The projection is built from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the match.

The model projects 1.4 expected goals (xG) for QPR and 1.2 for Derby, pointing towards a moderately open game. QPR take poor form into the game (0W-4D-1L in their last 5). Derby have been poor over the same stretch (0W-2D-3L).

Over their last 10 meetings, QPR have won 5, Derby 4 and 1 finished level. In the table, QPR sit 6/24 and Derby 23/24. Winotips Pro members get the model's single recommended pick for this match, its confidence rating, and the value bet carrying the biggest edge over current bookmaker odds.